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what? ...random musings about life, family, technology, politics, etc.

checking in, commenting on landscape

May 25, 2009 by Bill

Let's start by skipping the obligatory "it's been awhile..." (or not).

After almost three months as a member of the ever-growing class of the not-fully-professionally-occupied, my search for tomorrow's career continues. It's been a unique, liberating, oft-introspective, and definitively personal awareness-building experience. One or another opportunities have approached fruition only to then die on the vine, while others have been non-starters for me for one or another reason, and yet others remain in play. My targets, and those who have targeted me, have ranged from major global brands (tech and otherwise), to start-ups, to agencies and associations, to non-profits - representing an eclectic array of industries from beverage to fuel cell to reproductive rights, but with the lion's share of course being mobility/information technology-related.

In the meantime, I've been doing some freelance consulting.

Let's review the landscape...

On the mobile front...well, it's crowded, cluttered, confused, overlapping, integrated, inter- or not operable, etc. Look familiar? It should. It mirrors in many respects the essence of the Internet experience - in North America at least (which is where I'll focus for now).

Over the last decade, slowly but surely we've adopted mobiles - those once voice-oriented gadgets - into our daily lives. They are indispensable. Period. Today, even the most basic user has graduated from voice to texting, and, if not yet, will soon be snapping and sharing pictures and video, browsing the web, playing games, listening to music, navigating, face-booking, twittering, shopping, etc. Sound familiar? It should, it's a mirror replay of the PC's evolution from pre-Internet productivity tool to full-fledged commercial Internet multimedia gateway.

Can I get a resounding "well, duh?" I mean really, this is hardly new news - the mobile industry's been hyping the promise for years and, today, finally, with far less fanfare, the reality is happening all around us. Key to it all is ubiquitous (relatively) broadband at affordable (relatively) cost and richer functionality (not just relatively) devices. Everything else - the services, applications, content, etc. - follow as naturally in mobile as they did in the fixed Internet environment. Indeed, the line between fixed and mobile is irrevocably blurred.

Devices

And yet the mobility realm remains distinct in some respects. From a mobile device form-factor perspective, outside of the odd quirky fashion niche (e.g. swivel), we seem to have settled into flips and simple candy bars for the mass market low-end; mono-block qwertys, low-end touches or bulky qwerty sliders in the mid-range messenging class (once known as smartphones); and, lastly, sleek, upscale touch, qwerty or qwerty-touch hybrid handheld computers at the high end.

And then, of course, there's the mini-notebook and netbook phenomenon (Acer, Asus, HP, etc.) which so far seems to be mirroring the traditional mobile industry go-to-market model in terms of marrying subsidized, somewhat-limited utility micro-laptops to hefty and long-term AT&T and Verizon data plans (by the way, why not reverse the model? - subsidize prepaid data service via the unsubsidized cost of the netbook married to some unique value-added service/content?). But let's remember, these netbooks are still engineered and designed for "nomadic" activity as opposed to comfortably fixed or truly mobile. Don't get me wrong, there's a unique and exciting market for netbooks, but they'll eat more and faster into the laptop space than the mobile device space.

And before I depart devices, I'd be remiss to neglect Amazon's clever little disruptive Kindle which I believe is setting some interesting business model trends that the netbook folk ought to consider adopting - bit-piping the carriers and upending the years-long debate over who gets what in the mobile payments ecosystem by simply ignoring the debate altogether and maintaining their perfectly functional fixed status quo.

Vendors

Some sort of shakeout or consolidation in the vendor space is inevitable. Apple's done a marvelous job in carving out a lucrative high-end niche - an impressive 5% of Q408 device share in North America generating somewhere north of 60% data traffic. With one device. One carrier. That’s not even counting the millions of iTouches out there. Pretty damned impressive indeed - just goes to show you what elegant design, intuitive UI and simple application/service/content discovery will do for you.

HTC is poised to play in this space as well, but needs to resolve its OS approach - Android? Windows Mobile? What's it gonna be guys?

RIM still dominates the business qwerty space, at least in perception, but faces challengers and challenges in terms of mainstreaming its consumer offering.

LG and Samsung have done a fine job of catering to carrier whim and fancy and building and holding a strong bastion in the mid-range, and flirting both up and down range from there.

Nokia's foothold in the low end and feature phone space is solid(ish), if a bit(?) weaker than during its heyday, but they'll need to beware LG and Samsung drilling down into low end volumes as they face increasing pressure from Apple and others looking to further mainstream and more broadly scale their higher-end offerings into the mid- (and even entry) range. Getting a volume-oriented S60/smartphone device into the U.S. carrier channel is going to be crucial to Nokia's success in North America, both in terms of regaining device and value market share and in realizing their service aspirations - given Nokia's global scale and scope this should be achievable, and yet so far remains elusive.

And, by the way, I'll not be surprised by any resurgence by Motorola or Sony-Ericsson (much more likely the former, particularly if they execute well on Android and services, but the latter also continues to have promise in and around music and imaging feature devices).

And I'd be remiss to not reference Palm's sleek new device/intuitive OS reinvention - After all, remember that the first digital status device many of us carried out of the last recession was a Palm Pilot - there's a great nostalgia play to be made by Palm, and an application developer community poised for rebound.

And then there's the host of other players niblling at the edges as well as the newcomers we're only beginning to hear about... Like I said, a shake out is inevitable.

Operating Systems

Related to the form factor discussion, I'll offer a quick word on the OS environment where things definitely remain, um, a bit messy. The range of proprietary OS's at the low end is overly (generous word) broad, but, hey, no big worries here - such commoditized devices will always exist to serve a certain population and to provide a certain limited-functionality service set (primarily operator-driven – which does ensure some level of cross platform consistency given very firm operator control of the user experience with such devices).

At the mid-range and high end, you start to see a more stable if still overly-fractured landscape: iphone's OSx, Google's Android, Microsoft's Windows Mobile, RIM's BBOS, Nokia's Symbian (and Maemo), Palm's webOS, and, of course, the as-yet-realized promise of Open Linux for mobile. There are pros and cons to each solution. The combination of iPhone's intuitive interface, impressive developer and application pool, and simple discoverability of value-added experiences is as yet perhaps unparalleled (but the lack of a physical qwerty keyboard remains a turnoff for heavy-duty messengers).

Meanwhile, Symbian's global reach is without peer in terms of embedded devices supported by a wealth of experienced developers, but the UI is still a bit clumsy (however, much improved) for newcomers and, in any event, Symbian is a relative non-player in the North American market and, moreover, application/service/content discoverability remains a bit sketchy.

Android has promise and a graceful elegance in terms of UI, but continues to lack a strong device base, as well as a robust developer community. The Jury’s still out on Palm’s webOS. RIM’s BBOS is naturally limited in its proprietary implementation and, as for Windows Mobile, well, it does continue to improve, but for whatever and sundry reasons has simply not been able to crack the mainstream.

Whatever the case, the whole ecosystem is certainly less-than-optimal for developers and brands looking to deliver cross platform application solutions and content (but notably not a bad picture for operators looking to control their cross-portfolio service offerings and consumer relationships).

Operators

The natural segue here would be to the application/content/services space, but I can't let that parenthetical operator aside immediately above just hang there.

Anyone who knows me or has read past posts on this site or others probably has a pretty solid understanding of my sentiments about open access and choice - bottom line: consumers should have the right to their device of choice to attach to the network of choice to consume the content and service they most value and desire (i.e. choose). You know, kinda like the fixed Internet works. Or, simpler analogy, like the electricity grid. Imagine the electric company dictating which lamps you can use to light your home, and which wattage bulbs, etc.

Okay, okay, so that's grossly simplified and certainly doesn't take into consideration the decades-old quasi-competitive regulatory structure, out-of-synch spectrum planning, deployment of multiple incompatible technologies, etc. that have produced the current North American wireless business dynamic, much less the all important public obligation that mobile operators have to ensure the integrity of their networks, non-interference, some level of interoperability, and billing and account management consistency and control. Nevertheless, the consumer has and to some extent remains a bit short-change on the choice front.

But - good news - that's changing. It's kinda like gravity - it is what it is and you can't beat it for any extended period of time. As consumers increasingly migrate their fixed Internet behavior to the mobile space they will naturally expect to carry with them the freedom of choice they have come to value and expect. And as mobile devices become more and more computer-like and broadband wireless more and more ubiquitous, in a variety of flavors and from a variety of competitive providers, the collision between mobility and the Internet will trump any past expectations of convergence of the same. Choice will out. Period. There was a time for walled gardens in the fixed Internet's evolution, and for more-narrowly fenced patios in the mobile space - but those days have passed.

Thankfully, while the operator space is relatively mature business models and plans are already evolving to embrace this change, particularly as the likes of Walmart and Best Buy flex their muscles, not to mention the impact the exertions of content/media stakeholders are also having on operators. That said, AT&T and Verizon continue to dwarf their competitors, and, ever insatiable, continue to nibble away at the T-Mobile and Sprint subscriber bases, with all four majors continuing to dominate the channel to and permanent consumer touch. But, again, the winds of change are blowing and fully-recognized. And by the way, there's still some room in the market for a major newcomer operator - via acquisition or otherwise - to shake things up further via e.g. innovative service offering, alternative device or service subsidization, and/or alternative rate plans. And, finally, let's not forget that the umpteen billion dollars identified in the Obama stimulus plan includes in excess of $7 billion identified for telecom buildout - good news for infrastructure gear-makers, device venders and operators - existing or new - alike. There is growth yet to come...

Applications, Services and Content

Finally (phew), a few words on the experiences people are realizing with all of these nifty devices connected to these big fat piped networks. Not unlike the fixed Internet experience, it will be applications, services and content that drive the next wave of mobility. Java and brew have served and will continue to serve well enough in terms of cross-platform mass market, low end games, simple apps, etc. But as we enter the true mobile computing age, Apple and iPhone have set the bar pretty high in terms of SDK, app store, simplicity of discoverability, updatability, payment, etc., not too mention richness and depth of applications. Android offers similar promise, but remains time-to-market and device and developer volume challenged. Symbian, on a global basis, should perhaps have or have had the greatest opportunity, but, per points made earlier, has yet to finesse discoverability, application quality consistency, iconic hardware, etc. Changes may be in the wind in these respects, however…

Bottom line: Consumers really don’t care about operating systems, UI’s and the like. They just want a cool device that let’s them do cool things, application-based or otherwise. Easily. Cooperative initiatives between vendors, operators, application developers, content players, social networks and beyond are beginning to bear fruit. It’s no longer about music and video and Youtube and FB and MySpace – those solutions are all relatively nature in the fixed and mobile environments, some implementations more sophisticated than other in the latter respect. Going forward, it’s going to be about how to marry content, with experience, with location, with life… Some extent of universality and consistency of experience is going to be necessary and as such the continuing hardware and software fragmentation remains a challenge. But platform solutions will emerge that both make those distinctions transparent to end consumers and allow a wider and deeper range of brands to extend themselves, their brands and their value into the digital mobile space. Imagine, for instance, a cost-effective, intuitive application platform/template-based solution that would offer major brands the opportunity to develop, control and deliver timely, dynamic and refreshable cross platform mobile applications to target audiences at a fraction of the cost and with more editorial and more brand consistency than reliance on third party developers. Food for thought…

Granting that, in North America particularly, we need to acknowledge that digital affinity relationships have had the better part of a decade to mature and develop. They will not be easily upended. For instance, the MySpace-Facebook migration of two years ago – a true singularity – is not likely to recur. Twitter may have gained a certain popularity as an alternative “social” activity, and novel solutions like clipmarks may carve out a similar (and more value-added niche, but the two big boys rule the roost, at least for the immediate future. The application and service developers that succeed going forward will be those that leverage unique mobile characteristics like location, synch them up with fixed or nomadic Internet applications, services and content and marry the the whole lot into existing social networks (latter day bitpipes?) to deliver an altogether unique experience. Imagine, for instance, a platform- and access-independent, mixed reality, simple-to-use, snackable, brain-teasing, socially-charged, competitive, diverting, entertainment-based experience with the promise of financial reward and enhanced social status. If that sounds like a mouthful, it is - it's also verbatim from the first slide of the business plan...

Conclusion?


…Nah, just a beginning. Whole lotta minddump above – hopefully of some entertainment or educational value to the odd reader (or even the normal one). And I didn’t even get into all of the challenges we’re gonna be facing in terms of privacy, security, personal information protection, identity theft, etc. These are key strategic issues that will need to be managed in the context of all of the above. But manageable they are – ignored at your peril.

Later…

well... what next?...

March 28, 2009 by Bill

...coming soon.

google latitude - taking social location seriously

February 04, 2009 by Bill

about a year ago, i posted on a variety of potential social location solutions, with a highlight on gypsii's potential (link to that post). since, and much more recently, i've commented on clever solutions such as that developed by buddycloud (link to that post). google today upped the ante with latitude, not so much in terms of an innovative solution (although based on limited use so far it's way cool), but, rather, a solution that is scalable based on google's mainstream, everyday consumer penetration. put aside the privacy issues (they've done what they can), google's launched a simple, intuitive, where-am-i-where-are-you solution for the masses already married to the googlesphere. better, worse, more limited or not than other solutions - it's all about leveraging existing affinities, and google's way out in front in that respect. the smaller-scaled folk - Gypsii, BuddyCloud, Loopt, Whrrl, etc. should watch their backs. and, as for the the mainstream (in some markets at least) giants, well, you all better pick up the pace before there's no-one left to bring on board...

change...

January 28, 2009 by Bill

well, it's been awhile (a theme)...

...when i started this blog three years ago i tended to focus on where i was (away from home) and how i was feeling (away from home) more than anything else. over time though, a couple of additional trends emerged: 1) random tips on how to get the most out of your mobile and 2) general blathering about openness and network neutrality (check out the mobile-related links at right to browse posts on either topic). all along, while i regularly expressed an obvious bent for nokia and nokia solutions, i tried to avoid preaching nokia, and i never once mentioned that i was a nokia employee (i presumed, however, that most readers knew).

well, after almost twelve years, my nokia relationship is coming to an end. it's been a great run - from setting up a government affairs office, to overseeing the standards team, to leading strategy, then corporate communications, then the north american multimedia business, and finally, to running americas-wide go-to-market operations. all good. great even. but, now, sadly, as a result of nokia's most recent reorganization, i find the america's level organization i was most-recently leading phased-out, and myself standing in a tuneless room with one-too-few chairs. gotta admit, the whole thing's a bit hard to fathom, but hey, what a great opportunity for renewal. and, i suppose it does give me the opportunity to be a bit more candid in this forum. and with that in mind...

there's a lot going on in nokia's world these days, beyond the obvious hemorrhaging of talent (sorry, can't help myself). the convergence/collision of mobility and the internet - now mired in a global financial meltdown - may present the company with the mother of all inflection points. indeed, the economic crisis actually gives nokia a welcome opportunity to enhance its fledgling services offerings while competitors are challenged to capitalize on their leads and/or innovative new solutions. while, granted, nokia may be increasingly-challenged to deliver compelling devices in an ever-more crowded field, its almost-overwhelming (still, but not forever) base of embedded devices and unparalleled device market share position it uniquely to reap substantial services revenues (and add value to commoditized devices and drive future ad-based revenues, and so on, and so forth). not a bad place to be...

(as an aside, however, it's questionable how much of the above might apply to nokia's business in north america - but that's a different story. maybe someday).

so, anyway, the question is: will nokia use the opportunity to take the right risks and make the right investments to secure a leadership position, or will nokia hunker down to weather the ongoing economic storm, perhaps allowing innovative risktakers to gain?

...food for thought. however it goes, it should be fun to watch.

i'll be back.

the pace of change... openness?

January 09, 2009 by Bill

just over a year ago, in a multimedia-induced fever, i posted somewhat (and overly) caustically on the wireless industry's newly-discovered affinity for "openness" rhetoric (see "open. enough already: some truth"). while the promise remains real, and the sincerity of the rhetoric perhaps more genuine than i may have originally thought, the realization of the promise remains elusive. jack gold's piece in businessweek hammers that point home rather nicely - worth the read: Open, Schmopen: Wireless Networks Are Still Closed.

later... (perhaps sooner)

mobile facebook update (and hints at other things)...

December 17, 2008 by Bill

my, my, my... how time does fly. has it really been since august that i last posted? well, i guess there's been no shortage of change going down in my world - but more on that in the not-too-distant future... for now, on to business:

accessing facebook from a mobile device is hardly novel and certainly not limited to any particular device vender. indeed, you can point any device with a browser to http://m.facebook.com and away you go. beyond that, there are multiple java-based or other clients available that come installed on or are downloadable to your device, some of which may be a bit more graphically-elegant than a browser-based solution. whatever the case, all are functional, in their own ways.

with the above as context, and given my historical penchant for posting on s60 devices (e.g. primarilly nokia symbian-based), i thought i'd offer a quick-and-dirty on a couple of alternatives i've been messing with.

first off, we've got the new facebook widset from nokia. not bad. not bad at all actually. simple and elegant UI - the facebook logo across top with tabs for home, profile, friends and inbox (device screenshot below). as for functionality, you've got pretty much the basics you'd expect in order to maintain presence in your social network - latest friend requests, messages, status updates, etc.; access to your and your friends' basic profile data, mini-feeds, pictures and walls; ability to update your status on-the-go as well as to engage in threaded messaging; and - somewhat novel - the ability to upload snapshots from your mobile's camera directly to your facebook profile (as opposed to cross posting through whichever service you might be using). again, not bad at all...


the process for getting yourself set up is pretty simple. go to http://www.widsets.com, register yourself, choose which widsets you want to have resident on your device (facebook is only one option), download the widsets client to your s60 device, launch it, sign-in to facebook and you're live.

for a slight twist on the facebook theme, check out the buddycloud solution - http://www.buddycloud.com (thanks for the heads up chanse). this has got some promise as an extension of the mobile facebook experience (twitter as well), if they can get critical mass participation - a not insignificant challenge.

as a standalone application, buddycloud bills itself as a "mobile social location platform" that allows you and others in your community/communities to share status, location and proximity (cool) between mobiles and beyond, e.g. with simple plugins for facebook and twitter. there are a couple of cool elements here: one, the geolocationing solution is good-old-fashioned cell-ID triangulation (assisted by gps, wifi and bluetooth according to buddycloud, but nonesuch seem to have evidenced themselves in my trialling). another: once installed on your device, the buddycloud client absorbs your phone contacts into its interface, allowing you to click on a contact and choose to call or "send my place" (or otherwise solicit to the world of buddycloud). the app also allows for a rich range of friend, group or community customization, and, quite cool for the multi-platform social networking/messaging fanatic, it supports chat with any jabber client (e.g. gtalk, etc.). and, as for the facebook plugin (i didn't test the twitter version), simple, basic, graceful - one of many ways to adjust and communicate your status and location to your social network (image of FB plugin and device launch screen below).

launch screen on an s60 device

facebook plug-in as appears on profile page

like the facebook widset, getting up-and-running on buddycloud is a simple process of registration and quick client install, from either your mobile or PC. gotta reiterate something here: as just a facebook (or twitter) extension, buddycloud may not have very long legs (beyond perhaps some alternative application of its platform) - after all, while it's great at pushing info to facebook or twitter, it's basic promise is another new community and, frankly, barring some amazing new twist on the concept, users aren't looking for yet more new communities. but, all of that said, if buddycloud does somehow succeed in building a critical mass of users, then they could indeed have something here (if nothing else, a higher price for that alternative application of its platform).

what's it all mean in the end? short and sweet: more simplification of and potential value-added experience related to the mobile extention to the internet. cool, sure. but neither of these is terribly earthshaking. indeed, i'm still chasing whatever that next big disruptive, game-changing thing might be...

later. big changes underway by the way...

mobile web server (and so much more)...

August 21, 2008 by Bill

needless to say, it's been quite some time since i posted on a mobile gimmick, gadget or what-have-you. but this is really kinda cool.

been playing around with the nokia mobile web server (MWS) application for the last couple of months. while this is by no means a ready-for-mainstream-consumer-primetime solution, the promise is really quite amazing - a real world demonstration of what blending context, mobility and the web is all about.

first things first... pay a visit to http://mymobilesite.net/. the instructions couldn't be simpler - register your nokia s60 device, download the mobile web server app, quick and easy install, a little customization/personalization of your site (easiest from fixed-pc), and, presto, you're hosting a website from your device.

ok, so what's that mean? in short, from any other device with a browser - pc or mobile - you or those you've granted access can remotely tap your contacts, calendar, gallery, etc. (including, should you be so possessed, your text messages, files, etc.)

but it's yet cooler. those you grant access can also check your presence, e.g. your location, whether you're on a call, what profile your phone's in, what sort of data connection you have, your battery life, etc. - see screenshot below.



really amazing...and yeah, maybe just a little bit spooky. yet further, should you choose to so allow, remote users can actually request an image from your phone's camera which is subsequently snapped without you necessarily ever knowing - and the image doesn't even show up in the phone's gallery after the fact.

the utility of this last feature may not be readily obvious (unless you're thinking espionage or law enforcement), but is easily demonstrated by the facebook plug-in so quickly and cleverly crafted for the MWS. as per the screenshot below, the plug-in captures select data from the phone - date, time, status, calendar, battery life - and then offers a quick and easy window for your facebook friends to shoot off a text message, or, way cool, to request a "what am i seeing now" picture. the latter, in this case, notifies your phone that a request has come from whichever facebook friend and gives you the option to a) capture an image and then b) send it. works quite elegantly (but some brief latency depending on your phone's data connection).



again, while this may well still be an app for the geek elite, it's quite an impressive demonstration of certain elements of what's to come in terms of mobile context and (re)introducing your physical presence to your virtual world. 'talk about connecting people...

later.

beach week 2008...

by Bill


...amazing. once again. now counting the days 'til winter break...

dolan takes first at all stars...

July 27, 2008 by Bill


...just turned six and swimming back in first leg of age eight-and-under IM relay. way cool.

and he's got three more years to swim this age group. yet cooler. (from the mobile)

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